To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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wrongfunds
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To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am

I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I suspect many of you are probably facing the same dilemma. I would love to know what is your plan of action on taking delivery of Tesla Model 3.

an_asker
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by an_asker » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:09 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I suspect many of you are probably facing the same dilemma. I would love to know what is your plan of action on taking delivery of Tesla Model 3.
I cannot justify getting a Tesla for myself. But we are not discussing me here. So ...

You did put in a reservation for the $35k price. Did that include a) color choice b) non-dorky wheels c) self-drive capability? And what about the '-7.k'?

What I'm trying to say is that when you say $60k vs. $35k, that does not appear to be an apples to apples comparison, which to me appears to be a $35k vs. $49k.

That said, if there is a "$35k version" that will be available later, I would suggest you refuse delivery and keep your name on the list (if that's possible); however, if they were only "bait-and-switch"ing you, I think you could well be miffed enough to refuse delivery AND take your name off that list.

lazydavid
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by lazydavid » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:12 am

If you truly don't want to spend $60k on the car, just buy it with the most popular options, and then resell for a profit. Production volume is going to be low for a little while, and there's a huge pent-up demand. There are plenty of fanboys/girls who will pay over sticker to get one sooner.

wrongfunds
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:23 am

The question also becomes do I spend $60K to get new Model 3 or get a certified S for the same price? Although I do not think I can get 310 miles used S in that budget.

neilpilot
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by neilpilot » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:27 am

I also have a reservation slot. When I placed the reservation, it was obvious to me that options such as enhanced autopilot, optional wheels and the premium package would cost extra. I had no idea about specific option cost, or the specific options to be offered, or the fact that delivery of the base car would be delayed. However, I understood that I was reserving the BASIC Model 3 at $35 PLUS the cost of any options.

Sorry you didn't know what you were doing when you placed your reservation.

BTW there is no self driving option offered yet. That will come later, as a software upgrade, since the BASIC model 3 comes with all of the required sensors.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:27 am

lazydavid wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:12 am
If you truly don't want to spend $60k on the car, just buy it with the most popular options, and then resell for a profit. Production volume is going to be low for a little while, and there's a huge pent-up demand. There are plenty of fanboys/girls who will pay over sticker to get one sooner.
Yup. I got a lot of unnecessary options on my Model X only because I knew that I'd get the car sooner. I called it a "tax on impatience." The "danger" is that you fall in love with the car, and not want to let it go. :D

iamlucky13
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:58 am

You don't seem eager to buy a $60,000 car, much less an early production copy of a new model. I'd suggest you let them work out any bugs that crop up, and get their full production system running smoothly and producing the full range of options.

One wrinkle is Tesla is expected to use up their quota of the $7500 tax credit around the end of the year. Then it becomes a $3750 credit for 6 months, followed by a $1775 credit for six months, then it ends.

Also, most of the options are going to be pricey regardless of when you buy. There's some discussion of that here:

https://forbes.com/sites/chuckjones ... ally-cost/

Valuethinker
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:06 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I suspect many of you are probably facing the same dilemma. I would love to know what is your plan of action on taking delivery of Tesla Model 3.
I'd walk away.

There will be other times to buy a high performance EV for less than $60k.

Unless of course you are the sort of person for whom $25k is a rounding error?

Big Dog
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Big Dog » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:07 pm

will take delivery of the LR battery option, and change paint color ($50k). Would prefer the 18" wheels (for range, ride/handling, and replacement tire cost), but will withhold judgement until I see them with the covers off. Will not add the autopilot since it doesn't offer that much value to me.

Mrs. Dog gets Rez #2, but the $35k model for jaunts about town. California resident and early delivery, so expect that both will receive the full tax credit.

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bottlecap
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by bottlecap » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:09 pm

I gotta say that I'm impressed with Musk. We all knew that he is good at separating governments and consumers from their money, but this scheme to up-sell after a long-anticipated wait on a $35k Tesla is truly genius. The dude ain't dumb.

The boglehead says take your name off since what you want is not available (at $35,000). But only you can decide what you want to spend your money on. Are there other similarly-priced or cheaper alternatives out there that interest you?

Do tell us what you decide to do, if just for the benefit of science!

JT

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sunny_socal
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by sunny_socal » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:50 pm

I would not only walk away, I'd run. If you wait a while you'll be able to buy it from one of the Early Adopter$ for a fraction of the price :beer

DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:51 pm

I cancelled my Model 3 reservation. My $1,000 deposit was returned a week ago.

I'll buy a Toyota Camry or Honda Accord for around $24,000 instead. Invest the difference.

alter
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by alter » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:02 pm

I also cancelled my Model3 reservation for the exact reason as the original poster is considering. I knew it was going to be more for the all-wheel drive model with upgraded batteries and two motors, but I thought it would only add maybe 6k onto the price. Now its pretty clear the federal incentives will be exhausted and the Model3 I really want would cost over 60k. I cancelled and got my refund within about 2 weeks.

letsgobobby
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:11 pm

For all the reasons mentioned, I am about 90% decided to cancel my reservation.

psteinx
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by psteinx » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 pm

I haven't sat behind the wheel of one or anything, but I *really* do not like the vibe of basically a single oversized iPad like thing for most/all of the cabin controls and information, including, apparently, the speed.

I like *DEDICATED* displays of information, with the most important information (speed, maybe gas guage, headlights, and some place to put error warnings) in front of me - easily visible.

I like *PHYSICAL, DEDICATED* buttons for the most important/commonly used controls (headlights, windshield wipers, climate control, radio).

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StevieG72
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by StevieG72 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:21 pm

Not including the non-dorky wheel option would be a deal breaker for me.

Increasing my budget to 60k would not be a good option for me either.

Sounds like there is demand for the vehicle, how quickly do they depreciate? You could possibly purchase and resell if it is not 60k awesome to you.

How much are you out for deposit if you bail?
Fools think their own way is right, but the wise listen to others.

DS1986
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DS1986 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:06 pm

I canceled mine earlier this year as well. It all depends on your financial situation, but even if I personally could afford it, $35K to around $60K was too much of a price increase for me. And, I learned more about how the tax incentives would expire, further increasing the cost.

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jabberwockOG
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by jabberwockOG » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:22 pm

At this point in time Teslas are mostly expensive, trendy conspicuous consumption in an relatively impractical automotive form factor. Want to be environmentally sensitive and fiscally savvy but virtually invisible in terms of anyone noticing? ...buy a 2018 Prius or Camry hybrid...

sambb
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by sambb » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:37 pm

google tesla repair time, etc. I would cancel. nice car though.

btenny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by btenny » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:57 pm

This is really funny. The "the great $35K Tesla car is really $60K". Plus this is really a small economy car and not plush. I will be amazed to see how many orders stay on the books. This is the ultimate bate and switch. Sort of like the crazy IPhone prices. And then there are all the unknowns like reliability and performance and comfort and driving ease and and and....

EHEngineer
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by EHEngineer » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:05 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I am in the exact same situation. Here's my rationale.
1) Skip the full self driving. This car may be worn out before that happens. Save $3000.
2) Skip the long range. This car is not a road trip car, except in emergencies. It is an in-town car. 5.6s 0-60 is plenty fast. An 80% charge is 180 miles per day; way more than I need to drive. save $9000.
3) Do you really need power seats and a non-retracting glass sunroof? Save $5000.
4) Do you really need an self-steer algorithm that is not trustworthy? Let's be honest, you have to watch it all the time. This is a gimmick not a feature. Yes, I have driven a Tesla with Autopilot. disclosure: I used to have design control for a steering system for an actual L4 autonomous machine - one that moves with no human presence or input. Autopilot is not that. Save $5000.

Now you have a car that costs $30,000 (or less) after tax credit. You have $2500 of decisions left, paint color and wheel color.

After skipping all those options, you still have very quick, very quiet, very cool, very sleek and very minimalist car with a ton of cache. Buy this config and you can drive it for 6 months and probably make money selling it used. Your delivery window will be delayed only about 3 months.

However, if you decide you do want some of those options, you have to admit that you are buying a luxury car. You may or may not get that money back on the secondary market. Also, you may want to keep it.

If they had released AWD, air suspension, and the white interior, I would be spending extra to get those. 8-)
Last edited by EHEngineer on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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madbrain
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:08 pm

StevieG72 wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:21 pm
Sounds like there is demand for the vehicle, how quickly do they depreciate?
EVs have extreme depreciation compared to other vehicles due to the ever changing technology. Technological obsolescence is a real issue. These are heavily depreciating assets. I love EVs, but they are not investments.

madbrain
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:09 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:09 pm
I gotta say that I'm impressed with Musk. We all knew that he is good at separating governments and consumers from their money, but this scheme to up-sell after a long-anticipated wait on a $35k Tesla is truly genius. The dude ain't dumb.
Indeed. But not all consumers are dumb, either. I'm very much a "show me the money" type of guy. Tesla couldn't even anything about the specs and options when they started taking pre-orders for their model 3. So, I passed on putting a deposit. Glad I did not help finance the operation. We have been driving a Bolt since January.

iamlucky13
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:19 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:09 pm
I gotta say that I'm impressed with Musk. We all knew that he is good at separating governments and consumers from their money, but this scheme to up-sell after a long-anticipated wait on a $35k Tesla is truly genius. The dude ain't dumb.
I've had doubts since before it was even officially announced that his $35,000 car would really be a $35,000 car. I was impressed they followed through on offering even the base model for $35,000. After all, the Model S was originally announced as being $49,900. It came out pretty soon that the price included the $7500 tax credit, so I likewise assumed the Model 3's $35,000 price had the same caveat, but they didn't this time around.

They held the Model S price at the initial $57,400 level until they worked through the pre-orders, then started raising it. The base price is now $69,500. I don't know if they'll enact similarly large price increases with the Model 3 over the next couple of years, but for the time being at least, it is available at the originally promised price.

Additionally, the upsell strategy is not much different from any other car, including those in the same class, like the BMW 3-series. The starting price for those is around $35,000, but you can price a BMW 3-series up to around $60,000, as well. BMW only charges $550 for colors other than white, however.

thangngo
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by thangngo » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:30 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I suspect many of you are probably facing the same dilemma. I would love to know what is your plan of action on taking delivery of Tesla Model 3.
Can you transfer your spot to someone else who is interested? It sounds like you don't need the car. If you can transfer your spot, you may be able to turn a profit.

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Leif
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:03 pm

I have a Model S I bought last year. I've been happy with it.

It sounds like you can have the car you wanted, but you will need to wait. Did you think for $35K you could have all the goodies? All car manufacturers show their base price. BTW, if your remove the "dorky" wheel cover you get a better looking wheel. It will just lower your mileage a bit since it is less aerodynamic.

It seems to me Tesla is providing what they promised. The question for you is the car you want affordable? Also, will the federal incentives still be available? I made the mistake of buying self drive on a promise. A year later I have nothing to show for it. I recommend consider it later, if it ever comes out.

I would not buy a new design car in the first model year. The Model S and X had plenty of problems in the beginning. Too much risk for me.

You could consider an inventory or used model S if you like Tesla and if that will fit your budget.
Last edited by Leif on Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

Longdog
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:11 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I suspect many of you are probably facing the same dilemma. I would love to know what is your plan of action on taking delivery of Tesla Model 3.
I'm in exactly the same situation and have had very similar thoughts. I didn't expect to get the $35K one, but anticipated getting one in the mid-40s that was eligible for the full tax credit. Although I'm not 100% certain, I will likely take delivery of the first production run car. Or maybe the 220 mile range one; but still the 310 range one is very enticing. If I am unable to get the full tax credit, then I'm in no rush - I don't need the car (really, who needs a car any more expensive than an Accord or Camry?), but the early adopter in me thinks it would be kind of fun to be the first one in my neighborhood to have one. And this would be the biggest, most financially reckless splurge I ever took. But at this point in my life I can afford it if I really want it. Even if I don't take delivery and get my reservation back, I don't mind having given Tesla $10/year (the interest on the refundable $1000 deposit) to hold my spot in line.
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 pm

Leif wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:03 pm
Did you think for $35K you could have all the goodies? All car manufacturers show their base price. BTW, if your remove the "dorky" wheel cover you get a better looking wheel. It will just lower your mileage a bit since it is less aerodynamic.
All manufacturers don't have such a huge difference between in price between the base model and the fully loaded one.
For example, a base Bolt LT is $37,500 MSRP . A fully loaded Bolt Premier has a $43,905 MSRP.

Even if you are paying full MSRP for the fully loaded one, count sales tax & registration, subtract $7500 federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (in CA), you are at about $38,000 total, much less than any CPO Tesla you could get. And in reality there are discounts to be had on the Bolt of $1000 - $5000 depending on where you are.

Inframan4712
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:44 pm

madbrain wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 pm
Leif wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:03 pm
Did you think for $35K you could have all the goodies? All car manufacturers show their base price. BTW, if your remove the "dorky" wheel cover you get a better looking wheel. It will just lower your mileage a bit since it is less aerodynamic.
All manufacturers don't have such a huge difference between in price between the base model and the fully loaded one.
For example, a base Bolt LT is $37,500 MSRP . A fully loaded Bolt Premier has a $43,905 MSRP.

Even if you are paying full MSRP for the fully loaded one, count sales tax & registration, subtract $7500 federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (in CA), you are at about $38,000 total, much less than any CPO Tesla you could get. And in reality there are discounts to be had on the Bolt of $1000 - $5000 depending on where you are.
Except for the fact that you end up with a Bolt. A Chevy Bolt. Never again will I own an American car from the Detroit brands. I suspect there are quite a few folks who feel the way I do. 60 cent ignition parts that fail and kill people? No thanks. I'm not sold on the Model 3 either. I'd rather have a used Model S for the same money.

emoore
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by emoore » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:07 pm

Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:44 pm
madbrain wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 pm
Leif wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:03 pm
Did you think for $35K you could have all the goodies? All car manufacturers show their base price. BTW, if your remove the "dorky" wheel cover you get a better looking wheel. It will just lower your mileage a bit since it is less aerodynamic.
All manufacturers don't have such a huge difference between in price between the base model and the fully loaded one.
For example, a base Bolt LT is $37,500 MSRP . A fully loaded Bolt Premier has a $43,905 MSRP.

Even if you are paying full MSRP for the fully loaded one, count sales tax & registration, subtract $7500 federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (in CA), you are at about $38,000 total, much less than any CPO Tesla you could get. And in reality there are discounts to be had on the Bolt of $1000 - $5000 depending on where you are.
Except for the fact that you end up with a Bolt. A Chevy Bolt. Never again will I own an American car from the Detroit brands. I suspect there are quite a few folks who feel the way I do. 60 cent ignition parts that fail and kill people? No thanks. I'm not sold on the Model 3 either. I'd rather have a used Model S for the same money.
Vs. the unintended Toyota accelerations that they could never figure out and blamed floor mats???? Every car maker has their issues.

I'd go with the Model 3 and get the options you want just like any other car. They are options that your don't have to buy.

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Leif
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:20 pm

madbrain wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 pm
All manufacturers don't have such a huge difference between in price between the base model and the fully loaded one.
For example, a base Bolt LT is $37,500 MSRP . A fully loaded Bolt Premier has a $43,905 MSRP.

Even if you are paying full MSRP for the fully loaded one, count sales tax & registration, subtract $7500 federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (in CA), you are at about $38,000 total, much less than any CPO Tesla you could get. And in reality there are discounts to be had on the Bolt of $1000 - $5000 depending on where you are.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Bolt only has 1 battery size. Tesla has had large price difference in their battery configurations. That certainly does not surprise me. The standard battery on the 3 with around 220 miles is what I heard was the approximate range for a long time. Tesla premium paint price is always been ridiculous. But, as I said, if he is is OK with the base car he can get it (eventually) at the promoted price.

The CPO Tesla, you must realize, is a Model S, not a 3. Anyway, I would not buy the 3 now mostly because it is a new model. My other issue is the lack of a forward facing instrument cluster. I really don't like that.
Last edited by Leif on Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by travellight » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:31 pm

EHEngineer wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:05 pm
wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I am in the exact same situation. Here's my rationale.
1) Skip the full self driving. This car may be worn out before that happens. Save $3000.
2) Skip the long range. This car is not a road trip car, except in emergencies. It is an in-town car. 5.6s 0-60 is plenty fast. An 80% charge is 180 miles per day; way more than I need to drive. save $9000.
3) Do you really need power seats and a non-retracting glass sunroof? Save $5000.
4) Do you really need an self-steer algorithm that is not trustworthy? Let's be honest, you have to watch it all the time. This is a gimmick not a feature. Yes, I have driven a Tesla with Autopilot. disclosure: I used to have design control for a steering system for an actual L4 autonomous machine - one that moves with no human presence or input. Autopilot is not that. Save $5000.

Now you have a car that costs $30,000 (or less) after tax credit. You have $2500 of decisions left, paint color and wheel color.

After skipping all those options, you still have very quick, very quiet, very cool, very sleek and very minimalist car with a ton of cache. Buy this config and you can drive it for 6 months and probably make money selling it used. Your delivery window will be delayed only about 3 months.

However, if you decide you do want some of those options, you have to admit that you are buying a luxury car. You may or may not get that money back on the secondary market. Also, you may want to keep it.

If they had released AWD, air suspension, and the white interior, I would be spending extra to get those. 8-)
Great points! I like the way you outlined it.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:39 pm

madbrain wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 pm
Leif wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:03 pm
Did you think for $35K you could have all the goodies? All car manufacturers show their base price. BTW, if your remove the "dorky" wheel cover you get a better looking wheel. It will just lower your mileage a bit since it is less aerodynamic.
All manufacturers don't have such a huge difference between in price between the base model and the fully loaded one.
For example, a base Bolt LT is $37,500 MSRP . A fully loaded Bolt Premier has a $43,905 MSRP.
Tesla sells a much wider range of options on the 3 than Chevy does on the Bolt.

And other models often have a very large price range, too. A base model Equinox, for example, is $23,450 MSRP. Fully loaded with features like AWD, the top engine option, keyless entry, and the $995 iridescent paint option, I just configured one on Chevy's website for $42,010 MSRP. That's a 79% increase over the base price, similar to the 71% increase the OP is looking at on a Tesla 3.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:44 pm

EHEngineer wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:05 pm
I am in the exact same situation. Here's my rationale.
1) Skip the full self driving. This car may be worn out before that happens. Save $3000.
2) Skip the long range. This car is not a road trip car, except in emergencies. It is an in-town car. 5.6s 0-60 is plenty fast. An 80% charge is 180 miles per day; way more than I need to drive. save $9000.
3) Do you really need power seats and a non-retracting glass sunroof? Save $5000.
4) Do you really need an self-steer algorithm that is not trustworthy? Let's be honest, you have to watch it all the time. This is a gimmick not a feature. Yes, I have driven a Tesla with Autopilot. disclosure: I used to have design control for a steering system for an actual L4 autonomous machine - one that moves with no human presence or input. Autopilot is not that. Save $5000.
All good Boglehead points. I really regret getting FSD (Full Self Drive) since after 1 year I've gotten nothing for my money. I thought by now they would have at least rolled out something, but no. Plus I regret getting the enhanced autopilot (EAP). I'm often afraid to use it since a policeman may pull me over for drunk driving. I like the adaptive cruise control, but that is not worth $5,000. The long range I would consider, but yes it is expensive relative to the base car price.
Last edited by Leif on Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TimeRunner
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TimeRunner » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:47 pm

Nissan Leaf v2 seems functional. When you're sitting IN the car, you don't see the OUTSIDE of the car, so...that doesn't seem very important to me anymore. The Valet just wants a tip regardless. :-) http://motortrend.com/cars/nissan/l ... ve-review/
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | Endurance athletes are the SatuMedia of sports. | "I like people - I just don't want to be around 'em." - Russell Gordy

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:53 pm

emoore wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:07 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:44 pm
madbrain wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 pm
Leif wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:03 pm
Did you think for $35K you could have all the goodies? All car manufacturers show their base price. BTW, if your remove the "dorky" wheel cover you get a better looking wheel. It will just lower your mileage a bit since it is less aerodynamic.
All manufacturers don't have such a huge difference between in price between the base model and the fully loaded one.
For example, a base Bolt LT is $37,500 MSRP . A fully loaded Bolt Premier has a $43,905 MSRP.

Even if you are paying full MSRP for the fully loaded one, count sales tax & registration, subtract $7500 federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (in CA), you are at about $38,000 total, much less than any CPO Tesla you could get. And in reality there are discounts to be had on the Bolt of $1000 - $5000 depending on where you are.
Except for the fact that you end up with a Bolt. A Chevy Bolt. Never again will I own an American car from the Detroit brands. I suspect there are quite a few folks who feel the way I do. 60 cent ignition parts that fail and kill people? No thanks. I'm not sold on the Model 3 either. I'd rather have a used Model S for the same money.
Vs. the unintended Toyota accelerations that they could never figure out and blamed floor mats???? Every car maker has their issues.

I'd go with the Model 3 and get the options you want just like any other car. They are options that your don't have to buy.
Oh, sorry, I meant to include all the other stuff like horrid reliability, cheap design, and overall craptastic cars. I've been a licensed driver for 37 years, owned 2 American cars and rented dozens of others for work and they've all been bad to horrible except for the Ford Mustang convertible which had awful sight lines but they were improved and a lot of fun with the top down.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Nate79 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:01 pm

It's not surprising that so many of the so called reservations are being cancelled. Would be interested to see some statistics on this. The number of reservations was way over hyped.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by EHEngineer » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:12 pm

TimeRunner wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:47 pm
Nissan Leaf v2 seems functional. When you're sitting IN the car, you don't see the OUTSIDE of the car, so...that doesn't seem very important to me anymore. The Valet just wants a tip regardless. :-) http://motortrend.com/cars/nissan/l ... ve-review/
I agree, leaf v2 is intriguing. Has nissan exhausted their federal tax credits? If my choice were tesla 3 with credit or leaf v2 without credit, I would take the tesla, no question.
Or, you can ... decline to let me, a stranger on the Internet, egg you on to an exercise in time-wasting, and you could say "I'm probably OK and I don't care about it that much." -Nisiprius

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TimeRunner
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TimeRunner » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:18 pm

EHEngineer wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:12 pm
TimeRunner wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:47 pm
Nissan Leaf v2 seems functional. When you're sitting IN the car, you don't see the OUTSIDE of the car, so...that doesn't seem very important to me anymore. The Valet just wants a tip regardless. :-) http://motortrend.com/cars/nissan/l ... ve-review/
I agree, leaf v2 is intriguing. Has nissan exhausted their federal tax credits? If my choice were tesla 3 with credit or leaf v2 without credit, I would take the tesla, no question.
Answer to your question here: https://nissanusa.com/leaf-electric ... incentives
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | Endurance athletes are the SatuMedia of sports. | "I like people - I just don't want to be around 'em." - Russell Gordy

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by rupalb9 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:46 pm

I had put down the deposit on 3/31/2016.
The OP's post prompted me to go look at my Tesla dashboard.
I was asked to select from
(a) First Production | 310 mi range, RWD, premium upgrades | $49K | 12/17-2/18 delivery,
(b) Standard Battery | 220 mi range, RWDs | $35K | 2/18-4/18 delivery,
(c) Dual Motor AWD | Choice of 220 mi or 310 mi range | no price | 8/18-10/18 delivery.

I chose (b). No mission creep for me. I will decide whether to buy when I am offered a car.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by EHEngineer » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:57 pm

TimeRunner wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:18 pm
EHEngineer wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:12 pm
TimeRunner wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:47 pm
Nissan Leaf v2 seems functional. When you're sitting IN the car, you don't see the OUTSIDE of the car, so...that doesn't seem very important to me anymore. The Valet just wants a tip regardless. :-) http://motortrend.com/cars/nissan/l ... ve-review/
I agree, leaf v2 is intriguing. Has nissan exhausted their federal tax credits? If my choice were tesla 3 with credit or leaf v2 without credit, I would take the tesla, no question.
Answer to your question here: https://nissanusa.com/leaf-electric ... incentives
got it, they crossed the 200k mark in total sales, but well below in US sales.
Or, you can ... decline to let me, a stranger on the Internet, egg you on to an exercise in time-wasting, and you could say "I'm probably OK and I don't care about it that much." -Nisiprius

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:25 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:01 pm
It's not surprising that so many of the so called reservations are being cancelled. Would be interested to see some statistics on this. The number of reservations was way over hyped.
Some cancellations, but more new reservations.
About 63,000 people have cancelled their Tesla Model 3 reservations, Elon Musk said during Tesla's quarterly earnings call this week. But the Tesla CEO doesn't seem concerned. Musk said the cancelled reservations won't make a big impact, and implied it might be better for Tesla to keep the number of reservations in check for now, according to Business Insider.

Total orders for the new electric car dropped from 518,000 to 455,000, Musk said during the earnings call.

The Tesla CEO noted that new reservations have averaged 1,800 per day since the first cars were delivered to Tesla employees in a much-publicized event last Friday, and said Tesla could increase reservations even further, if it wanted to. It makes more sense for Tesla to focus on filling the orders it has than to chase new ones, Musk said..
http://thedrive.com/tech/13163/6300 ... ns-so-farl

I agree. Whether it is a little over or under 1/2 million reservations, that is a lot of cars, particularly for an EV. The tough part is now making all of those cars.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:54 am

TimeRunner wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:47 pm
Nissan Leaf v2 seems functional. When you're sitting IN the car, you don't see the OUTSIDE of the car, so...that doesn't seem very important to me anymore. The Valet just wants a tip regardless. :-) http://motortrend.com/cars/nissan/l ... ve-review/
However cars are not sold for practicality-- we'd all drive some basic Hyundai or Kia if they were.

So look is a big part of what sells a car, particularly a premium car.

Cars all look much more alike now, because of the need to get the drag coefficients down. The arrival of rear view cameras etc. seems to have reinforced the trend for poor rear visibility, which I deplore.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:41 am

Leif wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:44 pm
EHEngineer wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:05 pm
I am in the exact same situation. Here's my rationale.
1) Skip the full self driving. This car may be worn out before that happens. Save $3000.
2) Skip the long range. This car is not a road trip car, except in emergencies. It is an in-town car. 5.6s 0-60 is plenty fast. An 80% charge is 180 miles per day; way more than I need to drive. save $9000.
3) Do you really need power seats and a non-retracting glass sunroof? Save $5000.
4) Do you really need an self-steer algorithm that is not trustworthy? Let's be honest, you have to watch it all the time. This is a gimmick not a feature. Yes, I have driven a Tesla with Autopilot. disclosure: I used to have design control for a steering system for an actual L4 autonomous machine - one that moves with no human presence or input. Autopilot is not that. Save $5000.
All good Boglehead points. I really regret getting FSD (Full Self Drive) since after 1 year I've gotten nothing for my money. I thought by now they would have at least rolled out something, but no. Plus I regret getting the enhanced autopilot. I'm often afraid to use it since a policeman may pull me over for drunk driving. It is that bad. The long range I would consider, but yes it is expensive relative to the base car price.
Thanks EHEngineer! All of your points make lot of sense. I have found that the actual wheels under the dorky covers are quiet nice. As far as the "need" is concerned, I absolutely understand and even advice a decent "Camraccord" car. Come to think of it, what we really need is to replace the aging minivan and get another one even though we are empty-nester. That is how much we prefer a minivan for road trips. I am looking at leftover 2017 Odyssey or Pacifica.

I do many MA-NoVA trips (480 miles) With 220 miles Tesla, that will involve at least 3 stops each way which is two more stops than usual. But as you said, I might do that trip once in Tesla and after that most likely prefer to take the minivan instead.

At this stage, money is NOT the issue but I hate wasting it. We are still driving 18 year old vehicles because we can! That $60K can get me both Odyssey EX *and* Tesla base M3 rather than splurging on the loaded M3.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by EHEngineer » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:58 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:41 am
I do many MA-NoVA trips (480 miles) With 220 miles Tesla, that will involve at least 3 stops each way which is two more stops than usual. But as you said, I might do that trip once in Tesla and after that most likely prefer to take the minivan instead.
If I was doing regular 480 mile trips I would get the long range.
Have you seen the complaints about ICE cars parked in the super charging stations?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FRBK7BH6MLU
Or, you can ... decline to let me, a stranger on the Internet, egg you on to an exercise in time-wasting, and you could say "I'm probably OK and I don't care about it that much." -Nisiprius

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by rguina » Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:20 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced. I did it because $35K-$7.5K price was too attractive to NOT put my name on the list. According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame if I select the $49K car. This is with 310 miles + premium options package. That price still does NOT include 1) Color choice 2) non-dorky wheels 3)any self-drive capability. To have all that, it becomes $60K car.

Now BogleHead in me says plopping down $60K when I had convinced myself that I was going to buy $35K is extremely irresponsible. It is NOT that I NEED the $35K car to begin with! So purchasing $60K car seems to be insane. But I can not live with the bare bones $35K as it is equipped. The range is not enough and lack of expected standard comforts does not cut it. Financially, we can afford the $60K price tag.

I suspect many of you are probably facing the same dilemma. I would love to know what is your plan of action on taking delivery of Tesla Model 3.
I am very much in the same position. I would need to get the long range car because I have frequent drives that are over 200 miles each way (plenty of time to recharge between return trips). I was OK spending in the $35k-$40k range (even better if you can get the tax incentives). But I don't want to go to the $50k+ range.

Right now I'm leaning heavily toward canceling my reservation and waiting awhile. That will give Tesla time to improve upon this release, the technology should improve (auto-pilot, batteries, etc.), and hopefully used models will become available.

In the meant time, I bought a CPO Honda Accord V6. The added hp on the highways makes it a much more enjoyable ride than the base model and it's still relatively economical with the gas (33 mpg on the hwy).

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by neilpilot » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:55 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:58 am

One wrinkle is Tesla is expected to use up their quota of the $7500 tax credit around the end of the year. Then it becomes a $3750 credit for 6 months, followed by a $1775 credit for six months, then it ends.
This statement can be somewhat misleading. If you are basing your plan to relinquish your reservation on the $7500 tax credit, be aware that the credit remains through the calendar quarter AFTER Tesla sells 200k vehicles in the USA. So if the Tesla projects come to pass, they should sell 200k units in 4Q17. That means you would qualify for the $7500 if you take ownership of your Model 3 on or before 3/31/18.

Some are of the opinion that, if Tesla deliveries are approaching 200k late in 4Q17, Tesla may stockpile late 2017 production until January 2017. Others simply expect production issues may prevent the 200k unit being available by the end of this year. Either case would then extend the $7500 rebate through 6/30/18. I have no opinion on this, but in any case have a wait-and-see strategy and plan to hold my position for the base model.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by alfaspider » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:56 am

Even if you don't want it, it may make sense to buy it and flip it. Given the constrained supply, I wouldn't be surprised if people will pay over sticker to have one right away.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by neilpilot » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:01 am

The tax code on the rebate states that "The vehicle is acquired for use or lease by the taxpayer, and not for resale."

I realize that this is likely hard to prove, but discussion on flipping an EV should consider mentioning that this should be done without claiming any tax rebates, consistent with the Boglehead policy on illegal activities.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:06 pm

neilpilot wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:01 am
The tax code on the rebate states that "The vehicle is acquired for use or lease by the taxpayer, and not for resale."

I realize that this is likely hard to prove, but discussion on flipping an EV should consider mentioning that this should be done without claiming any tax rebates, consistent with the Boglehead policy on illegal activities.
As I understand it, the original purchaser gets the tax credit. i don't think there is a required duration for ownership. Nothing illegal about it.

The unlimited supercharging is associated with the automobile and not the owner.
ETA: I don't recall if Model 3 got unlimited supercharging, if it required a referral, or was not offered at all.

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